J.P.Morgan Maintains Amazon (AMZN) as Top Pick Amid E-Commerce Growth Projections
Amazon (AMZN) retains its position as J.P.Morgan's 'Best Idea,' with analyst Doug Anmuth reaffirming a Buy rating and a $240 price target. The projection hinges on a 32.5x multiple of 2026 free cash FLOW estimates, pegged at $75 billion. Despite anticipated U.S. e-commerce growth deceleration to 5.3% in 2025, penetration is expected to rise to 23.2% of adjusted retail sales.
Anmuth cites macroeconomic volatility and potential tariff impacts as near-term headwinds but forecasts a reacceleration in 2026, with e-commerce reaching 25% penetration by 2027. Amazon's 2024 U.S. gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 9.2% to $536 billion, capturing 46% of the e-commerce market and 11% of adjusted retail sales.